Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince
Mohammed bin Salman is
risking political and regional instability
by dismantling a decades-old system of
consensus rule, analysts including ex-
top US intelligence officers
Since replacing his cousin Mohammed
bin Nayef in June as first in line to
succeed King Salman, the 32-year-old
has embarked on a campaign to
consolidate power, taking on rivals
within the Saudi royal family and
religious activists.
In September, Saudi police arrested
dozens of religious figures, including
Islamic preachers Salman al-Awdah and
Awad al-Qarni, who still remain behin in
However, the heir to the throne's most
ambitious move came late on Saturday
when he fired senior ministers and had
dozens of the country's richest men
detained, ostensibly on the grounds of
combatting corruption.
They included his cousin and one of the
world's richest men, Alwaleed bin Talal;
at least 11 other princes; four ministers;
and several more ex-ministers.
Waleed al-
Ibrahim, the
chairman of the
Middle East
Broadcasting
Center (MBC),
one of the
region's largest
media
companies, and construction magnate,
Bakr Binladin of the Saudi Binladin
group, were also detained.
Confusion also surrounds the
whereabouts of Mohammed bin
Salman's predecessor as crown prince,
Mohammed bin Nayef, who has not
been seen publically since June and is
rumoured to be under house arrest.
'One-man regime'
The targeting of Saudi Arabia's long-
standing elite represents a shift from
family rule to a more authoritarian style
of governance based around one man,
according to Durham University
academic Christopher Davidson.
"Going after
such 'big fish' is
intended by MBS
and his allies in
Abu Dhabi as a
signal of MBS'
newly-
established sultanistic powers," he said,
using the widely-used acronym for
Mohammed bin Salman and referring to
his close ties to the leaders of the
United Arab Emirates.
"By going after the richest, whether
fellow princes or media moguls and
construction magnates, MBS is
demonstrating that nobody is outside
his control, as he is now at the top of a
more authoritarian, 'one-man regime',
with the old consensus-based, dynastic
monarchy of the past century having
effectively collapsed at some point
earlier this year."
Analysts said this week's purge by
Mohammed bin Salman could
potentially alienate members of the
wider Saudi family at a time when the
country struggles to balance its finances
amid sustained low oil prices.
Bruce Riedel, a
30-year CIA
veteran and
director of the
Brookings
Intelligence
Project, shared
some of Davidson's assessment,
describing the mass arrests as
"unprecedented".
"Royal family politics are traditionally
consensual with great emphasis on
preserving decorum and honour, even
for failed ministers," he said, predicting
that the breaking of the traditional
Saudi consensus-based model of rule
would lead to disorder within the
country.
"There will be much discontent behind
the scenes in the family, and the the
Kingdom is headed for instability."
'Perfect storm'
The breakdown of consensus rule could
have wider implications both at home
and abroad, particularly in terms of the
Saudi relationship with its regional rival
Iran, according to former US
intelligence operatives.
Since Mohammed bin Salman's
elevation to defence minister and
deputy crown prince in 2015, and later
to crown prince, Riyadh has taken on a
more aggressive foreign policy stance
towards Tehran.
In March 2015, Saudi Arabia went to
war against Houthi rebels in Yemen,
believed to be backed by Iran. In early
2016, it announced the severing of
diplomatic ties with Iran.
Amid rising regional
tensions, Mohammed bin Salman on
Tuesday accused Iran of what could be
"considered an act of war", blaming
Tehran for supplying the Houthi group
with a missile that was fired towards
Riyadh but was intercepted by Saudi air
defence forces.
Iran has rejected the Saudi accusation
as "malicious, irresponsible, destructive
and provocative".
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